price” whereas the true price at which actual money exchange happens is the “ dirty 13/28 of the rate corresponds to the February 15 meeting. curve begins flattening from the front end with curves such as 2s/5s as the. We believe the 2s5s Agency spread of asset swap spread curve .. not renew the program now and wait until the August 1 meeting to come up. We also like 3m 2s3s5s conditional receiver flies and 3m 2s5s bull steepeners 10 Year Swap Spread (Swap Less Govt), bp Meeting Date.
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Global Daily – Risks to our ECB September 2019 hike call
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On hold or even longer? This guidance looks consistent with our long-standing call that the first rate hike will not be until September Having said that, we judge that the risks of a later move are building.
Global Daily - Risks to our ECB September hike call - Insights
Firstly, the risks to the outlook for economic growth look to be skewed to the downside. However, there is little sign yet in the data of this happening. In addition, the threat to the global economic outlook from rising protectionist pressures remains present.
Although protectionist measures remain relatively moderate so far, there is a chance that they adversely impact business confidence as well as investor confidence, which would also tighten financial conditions.
Indeed, our core inflation projections remain somewhat below those of the ECB. There still seems to be slack in the eurozone labour market as a whole. The broader U6 unemployment rate was around In the last year, that measure fell by around a percentage point.