Food Security and Population Growth in the 21st Century
IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON FOOD SUPPLIES AND ENVIRONMENT about the growing imbalance between the world's population and the More than 99 per cent of the world's food supply comes from the. What is the relationship between population growth and wellb world's population, with improvements in food production, education, medicine. Not long ago, in , it seemed as if the rate of population growth was in 51 developing countries while rising in only 43 between and
Third, I assume normality and no correlation for all variables. The baseline model examines the relationship between agriculture production growth and population growth, taking in consideration GDP per capita, agriculture material imports, agricultural land and the political stability as control variables.
Population growth and the food crisis
It also incorporates dummy variables for regional classification. The second model uses all the variables, excluding regional classifications. The third model drops the Polity score variable from the regression. Finally, the fourth model analyzes population growth and regional classification. The primary regression model used for this study is: It refers to the net output by means of cultivation of crops and livestock production. This number was obtained from the World Development Indicators and measures the annual change of agriculture production vs.
It is based on the de facto definition of population, which includes all the residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. GDP per capita changes measures the economic development —an approximation of the value of goods produced per person-in all the countries included in the model. Agricultural land —measured in sq.
This number was computed using the World Development Indicators dataset. I also introduced dummy variables to determine the regional classification -Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania- for each country.
During the regression analysis, one of the variables was dropped, which leaves five regions: Results and Analysis Table 1 includes the summary of the regression for the all models. Model 1 shows the coefficient estimates on agriculture production growth in all regions, including all the control variables: The adjusted R2 for most models is 0. As well, all of the models show significant coefficients for Agricultural Land AgriLand.
The results of Model 1 do not support the hypothesis that population growth negatively affects agriculture production growth or that regional classification plays a role. The coefficient for population growth is positive, which indicates that an increase of one unit in population growth will increase agriculture production growth by 0.
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Model 1 also shows that agriculture land has a significant impact on agriculture production. The results indicate that holding all control variables constant, agricultural land will increase agricultural production by Model 2 does not include coefficient estimates for any of the continental regions. The model does not support the hypothesis that population growth will have a negative effect on agriculture production growth.
The results indicate that population growth will increase agriculture production growth by Model 2 also shows that an increase in agricultural land will increase agriculture production growth by Furthermore, the results indicate that an increase in democratization will decrease agriculture production growth by 5.
Interestingly, Lio and Liu found the same result in their coefficient estimates for agriculture production and democratization. A country's ability to feed itself very much depends on three factors: The more people there are, especially in poor countries with limited amounts of land and water, the fewer resources there are to meet basic needs. If basic needs cannot be met, development stalls and economies begin to unravel.
In some poor countries, attempts to increase food production and consumption are undermined by rapid population growth; migration from rural to urban areas; unequal land distribution; shrinking landholdings; deepening rural poverty; and widespread land degradation. Lower birth rates, along with better management of land and water resources, are necessary to avert chronic food shortages.
The demographic picture Not long ago, init seemed as if the rate of population growth was slowing everywhere except in Africa and parts of southern Asia. Today, the situation looks less promising since progress made toward reducing birth rates has been slower than expected.
The world's population, now million, is increasing by approximately people every day. It is estimated that 1 million people will be born during this decade. Over the next ten years, the population of the industrialized world will grow by 56 million, while the number of people living in developing countries will expand to over million United Nations Population Division, ; UNFPA, By and large, the biggest increases will occur in the poorest countries - those societies least equipped to meet the needs of the new arrivals and invest in their future.
Meeting food needs Worldwide, enough food is produced to feed everyone, yet this food and the technology to produce it do not always reach those in need. As a result of food deficits, nearly 1 million people do not get enough to eat and over million are chronically malnourished. Every year 11 million children under the age of five die from hunger or hunger-related diseases Lean, Hinrichsen and Markham, In recent decades there has been impressive growth in food production, which has been attributed to the development of improved, disease-resistant varieties of staple crops; the increased use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides; and the expansion of irrigated cropland.
Nevertheless, per caput food production actually declined in 51 developing countries while rising in only 43 between and Among the African countries, 25 experienced a drop in per caput cereal production.
In Latin America, production was also disappointing: In Asia, food production has managed to keep slightly ahead of population growth largely because of new breeds of Asian rice and the use of tremendous amounts of agricultural chemicals.
However, in some areas losses from poor land management have erased the benefits which had been gained Repetto et al. Consequently, developing countries' food imports are rising dramatically to compensate for local deficits. First, most of the nations of the world are now, to some extent, dependent on food imports.
Most of these imports are cereal surpluses produced only in those countries that have relatively low population densities and practice intensive agriculture. For instance, the United States, Canada, Australia, Oceania, and Argentina provide 81 percent of net cereal exports on the world market.
If, as projected, the U. In the future, when exporting nations must keep surpluses at home, Egypt, Jordan, and countless other countries in Africa and Asia will be without the food imports that now help them survive.
China, which now imports many tons of food, illustrates this problem. As the Worldwatch Institute has pointed out, if China's population increases by million and their soil erosion continues unabated, it will need to import million tons of food each year by Brown, But by then, sufficient food imports probably will not be available on the international market.
Certainly improved technology will assist in more effective management and use of resources, but it cannot produce an unlimited flow of those vital natural resources that are the raw materials for sustained agricultural production. For instance, fertilizers enhance the fertility of eroded soils, but humans cannot make topsoil. Indeed, fertilizers made from finite fossil fuels are presently being used to compensate for eroded topsoil.
Per capita fish catch has not increased even though the size and speed of fishing vessels has improved. On the contrary, per capita fish production is lower than ever before because greater efficiency led to overfishing. In regions like eastern Canada, overfishing has been so severe that cod fishermen have no fish to catch, and the economy of that region has been devastated. All of the world's fishing grounds are facing overfishing problems. Consider also the supplies of fresh water that are available not only for agriculture but also for industry and public use.
Water withdrawn from the Colorado River in several states for irrigation and other purposes results in the river being nearly dry by the time it reaches the Sea of Cortes, Mexico. No available technology can double the flow of the Colorado River, although effective water conservation would be a help.
Similarly, the shrinking ground water resources stored in vast aquifers cannot be refilled by human technology. Rainfall is the only supplier. A productive and sustainable agricultural system depends on maintaining the integrity of biodiversity. Often small in size, diverse species are natural enemies of pests, degrade wastes, form soil, fix nitrogen, pollinate crops, etc.
For example, in New York State on one bright, sunny day in July, the wild and other bees pollinate an estimated 6, million blossoms of essential fruits and vegetables.
Humans have no technology to substitute for many of the services provided by diverse species in our environment. Strategies for the future must be based first and foremost on the conservation and careful management of land, water, energy, and biological resources needed for food production.
[World population growth and the food supply].
Our stewardship of world resources must change and the basic needs of people must be balanced with those resources that sustain human life. The conservation of these resources will require coordinated efforts and incentives from individuals and countries.
Once these finite resources are exhausted they cannot be replaced by human technology. Further, more efficient and environmentally sound agricultural technologies must be developed and put into practice to support the continued productivity of agriculture.
Yet none of these measures will be sufficient to ensure adequate food supplies for future generations unless the growth in the human population is simultaneously curtailed. Several studies have confirmed that to maintain a relatively high standard of living, the optimum population should be less than million for the U. This assumes that from now until an optimum population is achieved, strategies for the conservation of land, water, energy, and biological resources are successfully implemented and a sound, productive environment is protected.